Italy’s lurch to the far right immediately shifted Europe’s geopolitics, placing a eurosceptic party in position to lead a founding member of the European Union and its third-largest economy.

Right-wing leaders across Europe immediately hailed Ms Meloni’s victory and her party’s meteoric rise as sending a historic message to Brussels, while Italy’s left warned of “dark days” ahead and vowed to keep Italy in the heart of Europe.

Near-final results showed the centre-right coalition netting some 44% of the parliamentary vote, with Ms Meloni’s Brothers of Italy snatching some 26%.

Her coalition partners divided up the remainder, with the anti-immigrant League of Matteo Salvini winning 9% and the more moderate Forza Italia of ex-premier Silvio Berlusconi taking around 8%.

The centre-left Democratic Party and its allies had around 26%, while the 5-Star Movement — which had been the biggest vote-getter in 2018 Parliamentary elections — saw its share of the vote halved to some 15% this time around.

Turnout was a historic low 64%.

Pollsters suggested voters stayed home in protest, disenchanted by the backroom deals that had created the last three governments.

Ms Meloni, whose party traces its origins to the post-war, neo-fascist Italian Social Movement, tried to sound a unifying tone in a victory speech early on Monday, noting that Italians had finally been able to determine their leaders.

“If we are called to govern this nation, we will do it for everyone, we will do it for all Italians and we will do it with the aim of uniting the people,” Ms Meloni said.

“Italy chose us. We will not betray it as we never have.”

While the centre-right was the clear winner, the formation of a government is still weeks away and will involve consultations among party leaders and with President Sergio Mattarella.

In the meantime, outgoing Premier Mario Draghi remains in a caretaker role.

The elections, which took place some six months early after Mr Draghi’s government collapsed, came at a crucial time for Europe as it faces Russia’s war in Ukraine and the related soaring energy costs that have hit ordinary Italian pocketbooks as well as industry.

A Ms Meloni-led government is largely expected to follow Italy’s current foreign policy, including her pro-Nato stance and strong support for supplying Ukraine with weapons to defend against Russia’s invasion, even as her coalition allies stake a slightly different tone.

Both Mr Berlusconi and Mr Salvini have ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

While both have distanced themselves from his invasion, Mr Salvini has warned that sanctions against Moscow are hurting Italian industry, and even Mr Berlusconi has excused Mr Putin’s invasion as foisted on him by pro-Moscow separatists in the Donbas.

A bigger shift and one likely to cause friction with European powers is likely to come over migration.

Ms Meloni has called for a naval blockade to prevent migrant boats from leaving North African shores, and has proposed screening potential asylum-seekers in Africa, before they set out on smugglers’ boats to Europe.

Mr Salvini made it clear he wants the League to return to the interior ministry, where as minister he imposed a tough anti-migrant policy.

But he may face an internal leadership challenge after the League suffered an abysmal result of under 10%, with Ms Meloni’s party outperforming it in its north-eastern stronghold.

Mr Salvini acknowledged the League was punished for its governing alliances with the 5-Stars and then Mr Draghi, but said: “It’s a good day for Italy because it has five years of stability ahead of it.”

On relations with the European Union, analysts note that for all her eurosceptic rhetoric, Ms Meloni moderated her message during the campaign and has little room to manoeuvre given the economic windfall Italy is receiving from Brussels in coronavirus recovery funds.

Italy secured some 191.5 billion euros (£171 billion), the biggest chunk of the EU’s 750 billion-euro (£670 billion) recovery package, and is bound by certain reform and investment milestones it must hit to receive it all.

That said, Ms Meloni has criticised the EU’s recent recommendation to suspend 7.5 billion euros (£6.7 billion) in funding to Hungary over concerns about democratic backsliding, defending Viktor Orban as the elected leader in a democratic system.

Mr Orban’s political director, Balazs Orban, was among the first to congratulate Ms Meloni.

“In these difficult times, we need more than ever friends who share a common vision and approach to Europe’s challenges,” he tweeted.

French far-right leader Marine Le Pen praised Ms Meloni for having “resisted the threats of an anti-democratic and arrogant European Union”.

Santiago Abascal, the leader of Spain’s far-right Vox opposition party, tweeted that Ms Meloni “has shown the way for a proud and free Europe of sovereign nations that can cooperate on behalf of everybody’s security and prosperity”.

Ms Meloni is chairwoman of the right-wing European Conservative and Reformist group in the European Parliament, which gathers her Brothers of Italy, Poland’s Law and Justice Party, Spain’s Vox and the Sweden Democrats, which just won big in elections there on a platform of cracking down on crime and limiting immigration.

“The trend that emerged two weeks ago in Sweden was confirmed in Italy,” acknowledged Democratic Party leader Enrico Letta, calling Monday a “sad day for Italy, for Europe”.

“We expect dark days. We fought in every way to avoid this outcome,″ Mr Letta said at a somber press conference. While acknowledging the future of the party and his own future required reflection, he vowed: “The PD will not allow Italy to leave the heart of Europe.”

Thomas Christiansen, professor of political science at Rome’s Luiss University and the executive editor of the Journal of European Integration, noted that Italy has a tradition of pursuing a consistent foreign and European policy that is in some ways bigger than individual party interests.

“Whatever Meloni might be up to will have to be moderated by her coalition partners and indeed with the established consensus of Italian foreign policy,” Mr Christiansen said in an interview.

Ms Meloni proudly touts her roots as a militant in the neo-fascist Italian Social Movement (MSI), which was formed in the aftermath of the Second World War with the remnants of Benito Mussolini’s fascist supporters.

Ms Meloni joined in 1992 as a 15-year-old.

During the campaign, Ms Meloni was forced to respond after the Democrats used her party’s origins to paint her as a danger to democracy.

“The Italian Right has handed fascism over to history for decades now, unambiguously condemning the suppression of democracy and the ignominious anti-Jewish laws,” she said in a multilingual campaign video.

Right-wing leaders across Europe immediately hailed Ms Meloni’s victory and her party’s meteoric rise as sending a historic message to Brussels.

In a victory speech, Ms Meloni struck a moderate tone, saying from her party’s headquarters in Rome: “If we are called to govern this nation, we will do it for everyone, we will do it for all Italians and we will do it with the aim of uniting the people (of this country).

“Italy chose us. We will not betray (the country) as we never have.”

The formation of a ruling coalition, with the help of Ms Meloni’s right-wing and centre-right allies, could take weeks. If 45-year-old Ms Meloni succeeds, she would be the first woman to hold the country’s premiership.

The mandate to try to form a government is given by Italy’s president after consultations with party leaders.

Near-final results showed the centre-right coalition netting some 44% of the parliamentary vote, with Ms Meloni’s Brothers of Italy taking 26%.

Her coalition partners divided up the remainder, with the anti-immigrant League of Matteo Salvini winning nearly 9% and the more moderate Forza Italia of ex-Premier Silvio Berlusconi taking around 8%.

The centre-left Democratic Party and its allies had around 26%, while the 5-Star Movement – which took the biggest single vote in 2018 parliamentary elections – saw its share of the vote halved to some 15% this time around.

Turnout was at a historic low of 64%. Pollsters suggested voters stayed home partly in protest and also because they were disenchanted by the backroom deals that have created the three governments since the previous poll.

Meanwhile, former European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi, whose government collapsed two months ago, stays on in a caretaker role.

Differences among Ms Meloni’s potential coalition partners could loom.

She has solidly backed the supplying of Ukraine with arms to defend itself against Russia’s invasion. In contrast, right-wing League leader Matteo Salvini, who before the war was a staunch admirer of Russian President Vladimir Putin, has voiced concern that Western sanctions could end up hurting Italy’s economic interests more than punishing Russia’s.

Former premier Silvio Berlusconi, another long-time Putin admirer, has said that his inclusion in a centre-right bloc’s coalition would guarantee that Italy stays firmly anchored in the European Union and one of its most reliable members.

With Italy’s households and businesses struggling with staggeringly high energy bills as winter approaches, Ms Meloni has demurred from Mr Salvini’s push to swell already-debt-laden Italy by tens of billions of euros for energy relief.

What kind of government the eurozone’s third-largest economy might be getting was being closely watched in Europe, given Ms Meloni’s criticism of “Brussels bureaucrats” and her ties to other right-wing leaders.

She recently defended Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban after the European Commission recommended suspending billions of euros in funding to Hungary over concerns about democratic backsliding and the possible mismanagement of EU money.

Mr Orban’s political director, Balazs Orban, was among the first to congratulate Ms Meloni. “In these difficult times, we need more than ever friends who share a common vision and approach to Europe’s challenges,” he tweeted.

French politician Marine Le Pen’s party hailed the result as a “lesson in humility” for the EU.

Santiago Abascal, the leader of Spain’s far-right Vox opposition party, tweeted that Ms Meloni “has shown the way for a proud and free Europe of sovereign nations that can cooperate on behalf of everybody’s security and prosperity”.

After opinion polls in the run-up to the vote indicated she would be headed to victory, Ms Meloni started moderating her message of “God, homeland and family” in an apparent attempt to reassure the European Union and other international partners, worried about Euroscepticism.

“This is the time for being responsible,” Ms Meloni said, appearing live on television and describing the situation for Italy and the European Union is “particularly complex”.

She promised more detailed comments later on Monday. In her campaign, she criticised European Union officials as being overly bureaucratic and vowing to protect Italy’s national interests if they clash with EU policies.

Ms Meloni’s meteoric rise in the European Union’s third-largest economy comes at a critical time, as much of the continent reels under soaring energy bills, a repercussion of the war in Ukraine, and the West’s resolve to stand united against Russian aggression is being tested. In the last election, in 2018, Ms Meloni’s party took 4.4%.

Italy has had three coalition governments since the last election – each led by someone who had not run for office, and that appeared to have alienated many voters, pollsters had said.

Ms Meloni’s party was forged from the legacy of a neo-fascist party formed shortly after the war by nostalgists of Fascist dictator Benito Mussolini.

Italy’s complex electoral law rewards campaign alliance. Ms Meloni was buoyed by joining campaign forces with Mr Salvini and Mr Berlusconi.

The Democrats went into the vote at a steep disadvantage since they failed to secure a similarly broad alliance with the left-leaning populists of the 5-Star-Movement, the largest party in the just-ended legislature.

The election on Sunday came six months early after Mr Draghi’s pandemic unity government, which enjoyed wide citizen popularity, collapsed in late July after the parties of Mr Salvini, Mr Berlusconi and Giuseppe Conte withheld support in a confidence vote.

Ms Meloni kept her Brothers of Italy party in the opposition, refusing to join Mr Draghi’s unity government or the two previous coalitions led by Mr Conte.