Japan’s prime minister Fumio Kishida called for increases in Japan’s military capability and spending in response to what he described as growing threats from China and North Korea in a public debate with eight other political party leaders ahead of upcoming national elections.

The party leaders also discussed ways to mend the pandemic-hit economy and respond to any future waves of the coronavirus, issues expected to feature prominently in the October 31 elections.

Meanwhile, in an article for the Sunday Times, the Welsh Conservative leader in the Senedd Andrew RT Davies called for the extra funding coming to Wales as result of additional spending on the NHS in England to be “urgently directed at repairing the damage from coronavirus, but we are still waiting on a government in Cardiff Bay that prefers to pick constitutional battles”.

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Your Tuesday Briefing

Germany’s election results.

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Sept. 27, 2021

We’re covering Germany’s election and a plan for the return of normalcy in Sydney.

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Olaf Scholz is poised to be Germany’s next leader

The center-left Social Democratic Party won Germany’s election, defeating Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union by 1.6 percentage points, with 25.7 percent of the vote. Olaf Scholz did the unthinkable, carrying his long-dead Social Democrats to victory.

The hardest part is yet to come: For the first time since the 1950s, the next chancellor will have to get at least three different parties behind a governing deal. The process could take months.

If Scholz does become chancellor, his term is likely to be full of compromise with his coalition partners. The conservative runner-up, Armin Laschet, could still beat him to the top job.

“No one should behave as if he alone could build a government,” Laschet told reporters Monday. “He who can build a majority to back him will become chancellor.”

What’s next: Germany’s political landscape has fractured into multiple parties that differ less in size. Scholz said that voters gave a “clear mandate” that the next government should be created by his party, as well as the progressive Greens, with 14.8 percent of voter support, and the pro-business Free Democrats, with 11.5 percent.

Impact: E.U. policy may be delayed as leaders wait for Germany’s new government to take shape.

Related: Two Greens candidates, Tessa Ganserer and Nyke Slawik, became the first transgender women to join the German Parliament.

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A plan for returning to normal life in Sydney

Three months after Australia’s biggest city locked down to contain its latest coronavirus outbreak, the authorities have outlined a path to reopening.

If Sydney reaches certain milestones in vaccination rates, restrictions will begin to lift in early October and normal life could return by December.

The city’s five million residents will begin to emerge from lockdown on Oct. 11, Gladys Berejiklian, the leader of New South Wales, said on Monday. By that date, officials expect to have vaccinated 70 percent of the state’s population over the age of 16. Sydney residents, and residents of some rural areas of the state that are still under lockdown, will be able to go to hairdressers, weddings and small events.

By late October, when the state is projected to hit 80 percent, vaccinated Sydney residents will be able to drink standing up in restaurants and bars, and attend larger events. Melbourne, Australia’s second biggest city, is set to start emerging from lockdown on Oct. 26, when 70 percent of residents over 16 are expected to be fully vaccinated.

Here are the latest updates and maps of the pandemic.

In other developments:

• Tens of thousands of health care workers in New York appeared to be risking their jobs by defying a state mandate to receive a vaccine dose by Monday.

• U.S. President Joe Biden received a booster shot of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine.

• Costco, a major American bulk retail store, will limit sales of toilet paper and water because of “Delta-related demand.”

• Nepal has reopened to visitors in a bid to revive its tourism industry.

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China’s electrical outages could increase prices

Power outages slowed or closed factories across China in recent days, adding problems to the country’s slowing economy and to snarled global supply chains.

The outages have rippled across most of eastern China, where the bulk of the population lives and works. Municipalities have shut down pumping stations. Building managers have turned off elevators.

Compared with last year, electricity demand is growing this year in China at nearly twice its usual annual pace. The rise has been driven by swelling orders for the smartphones, appliances, exercise equipment and other manufactured goods that China’s factories churn out.

Context: Demand has greatly increased for China’s export factories, which use tons of electricity, particularly in the production of aluminum, steel and cement. The price of coal to generate that electricity has gone up. But regulators have kept utility rates low, and the utilities haven’t been able to cover their costs, causing them to reduce hours or shut down.

THE LATEST NEWS

News From Asia

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• China said it was cracking down on “medically unnecessary” abortion, prompting fears about privacy in a country with a history of intrusive reproductive health measures.

• Thousands of Indian farmers blocked major roads in New Delhi on Monday, marking one year of protests over agricultural reforms, Reuters reports.

• Two women are among the candidates for Japan’s next prime minister, but their fate is in the hands of a mostly male, conservative governing party, The A.P. reports.

Around the World

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• Carles Puigdemont, the Catalan separatist wanted in Spain for leading a failed breakaway movement, left Italy on Monday, days after Italian authorities briefly detained him.

• Facebook paused plans for an Instagram app for kids under 13 after a backlash.

• R. Kelly was found guilty of being the ringleader of a decades-long scheme to recruit women and underage girls for sex. The verdict came after decades of sexual abuse allegations.

• Voters in Switzerland overwhelmingly approved an amendment to legalize same-sex marriage.

• The ban in Texas on most abortions has some women traveling to neighboring states. At one Oklahoma clinic, at least two-thirds of patients now come from Texas.

• Hurricane Ida caused dozens of oil spills in the Gulf of Mexico.

• “Moulin Rouge!” and “The Inheritance” took the top honors at the Tony Awards on Sunday night.

A Morning Read

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Australia has won praise from allies for redefining its ties with China — including its submarine deal with the U.S. But to increasingly vocal critics, Australia’s turn in policy and tone also offers warnings. Farmers wonder about a Chinese blockade on their products, and a climate change collaboration was brought to a halt.

ARTS AND IDEAS

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Those familiar containers

Our food writer Priya Krishna wrote about the containers we use over and over, like Cool Whip tubs and Taster’s Choice jars, and how they can evoke stronger feelings than the food that came in them.

It was a tweet heard round the internet. Two images, side by side: two regal blue Royal Dansk tins, filled with sugar-studded butter cookies slotted in white wrappers, next to an identical tin with a much less enticing assortment of buttons and thread. Written beneath the first image: “My fall plans.” Under the second: “The Delta variant.”

The tweet hit on a seemingly universal experience: the repurposing of a Royal Dansk tin as a sewing kit, and the dismay of all of the children who’ve opened one.

“This thing that I thought was a very niche and specific to being Latin and being Mexican turned out to be a global phenomenon,” said the film critic Carlos Aguilar, who wrote the tweet. He grew up in Mexico City and lives in Los Angeles.

Food can inspire strong emotions. And sometimes the container it came in can evoke an even stronger response. Royal Dansk tins, Cool Whip tubs, Dannon yogurt containers and Bonne Maman jam jars all belong to an unofficial hall of fame of receptacles that have been redeployed for myriad uses, giving them countless afterlives and often imbuing them with special meaning.

PLAY, WATCH, EAT

What to Cook

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Meefun, a stir-fried rice noodle dish common in Taiwan, is easy to make and packed with umami.

What to Read

The poetry collection “Stones,” by Kevin Young, the poetry editor of The New Yorker, is about family, about death and about how families absorb and repurpose loss.

Fashion Week

Are these goggles the next cool sunglasses?

Now Time to Play

Here’s today’s Mini Crossword, and a clue: Long period of history (five letters).

And here is today’s Spelling Bee.

You can find all our puzzles here.

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That’s it for today’s briefing. See you next time. — Melina

P.S. The New York Times launched a talent pipeline and mentoring program for early-college students.

The latest episode of “The Daily” is on the Haitian migrant crisis at the U.S. border.

You can reach Melina and the team at briefing@nytimes.com.

“The most irrelevant lobby in the country today are the libertarians arguing there is no case for lockdowns anywhere of any scale,” declared Paul Kelly, the doyen of Australian conservative political commentary, in July.

However, anti-government anger is growing as Australians confront the realities of a dismally slow vaccination rollout and ongoing lockdowns. The right-wing libertarians of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) hope to convert that sentiment into the votes they need to win seats in state and federal parliaments.

Just a few days prior to Kelly’s declaration, his colleague at Rupert Murdoch’s conservative broadsheet the Australian, Janet Albrechtsen, set the hares running. She argued that widespread disaffection with the Liberal Party’s pandemic response, both federally and in New South Wales, has led to the rejuvenation of the LDP, “the little start-up that never took off.” If, Albrectsen argued, they mobilize serious intellectual firepower and keep out the weirdos and gun nuts, the LDP can force the Liberals to remain true to the values they claim to uphold.

Australia’s low coronavirus case numbers have been the envy of much of the world. These numbers were kept down partly by the strict and lengthy lockdowns that Australians have endured, including a fresh round that are ongoing in NSW, Victoria, and the Australian Capital Territory. Yet lockdown skepticism is on the rise, as are criticisms of the often heavy-handed means with which they are implemented. It remains to be seen whether the LDP can capitalize on this sentiment.

Libertarianism is very much a niche movement in Australian politics. The Liberal Democratic Party was founded in Canberra in 2001 by twenty-two-year-old economics graduate John Humphreys. Then a junior policy analyst in the Commonwealth Treasury, Humphreys despaired that there was no political party that aligned with his libertarian views. Ironically, given the party’s anti-statist bent, in its early years it drew support primarily from Canberra public servants.

LDP members and supporters use the terms “classical liberal” and “libertarian” interchangeably. Chris Berg, formerly of the free market think tank the Institute of Public Affairs (IPA) and author of a book on libertarianism, believes the distinction is insignificant. “Both philosophies believe that public policy should be designed to maximise free markets and civil liberties,” he wrote in 2018. “That is, governments should get out of both the wallet and the bedroom.”

However, the differing terms do point to genuine fault lines within the LDP. On one side are the Hayekian classical liberals, who are principally concerned with free markets, low taxation, and property rights. Many of this persuasion find a comfortable home in the Liberal Party — for example, Berg’s former IPA colleagues James Paterson and Tim Wilson.

On the other side are the social and cultural libertarians, who are more intensely focused on the freedom of the individual to do what he or she pleases, as long as it harms no one else. They strongly support liberalizing drug laws, for example, putting them at odds with the more conservatively inclined wing. Internal divisions like these are common to all political parties, however, and the LDP’s factions have had enough in common to keep the party going for twenty years.

In this time, the LDP has only notched up minor electoral successes. Its high watermark came in 2013, when David Leyonhjelm was elected to the federal Senate with 9.5 percent of the vote in NSW. Even so, LDP partisans acknowledge that Leyonhjelm benefited from being placed first on the ballot paper. Additionally, some voters likely confused the LDP with the similarly named Liberal Party. Generally, the LDP tends to win between 1 and 3 percent of the vote.

At the state level, the party achieved successes in 2017 and 2018, with one candidate elected in Western Australia (WA) and two in Victoria. In 2019, however, Leyonhjelm resigned from the Senate to contest a seat in the NSW parliament. He failed. In the federal election that followed shortly after, Leyonhjelm’s Senate replacement was unable to reclaim his seat.

Just this year, the LDP lost its seat in WA, leaving the two Victorians, David Limbrick and Tim Quilty, as the only LDP members in any Australian parliament. This raises the question: Where can the LDP go from here?

Having stepped down as president of the LDP in 2004, Humphreys reassumed the position in May 2021. For much of the past twenty years, he has played a leading role building Australia’s libertarian movement, through think tanks and advocacy groups such as the Centre for Independent Studies and the Australian Libertarian Society.

Following Humphreys’s return, along with what Albrechtsen described as some “serious financial backing,” the LDP coordinated a rapid series of announcements that the right-wing media have taken up with relish.

First, the Australian edition of the Spectator broke the not-exactly-bombshell news that the little-known Liberal Party activist John Ruddick had quit the party to run as an LDP candidate. Former Liberal senator (and leader of the failed minor party the Australian Conservatives) Cory Bernardi then used his platform on Sky News to advocate for the LDP. Embracing his inner Lenin, Bernardi argued that Australia needs “a vanguard to stick up for the liberty loving citizens who are actually sceptical about an all-powerful government.”

The Spectator soon endorsed Bernardi and Albrechtsen’s argument in an editorial. This was followed by a gushing interview on Sky News’ Outsiders, hosted by Rowan Dean, who is also the Australian editor of the Spectator.

Next, former Queensland premier Campbell Newman entered the fray. He dropped the news to the Australian that he had quit the Liberal National Party (LNP) and was considering running for the federal Senate as an LDP candidate. As he put it, he wants to “apply a blowtorch to people who seek to restrict our liberties and freedoms.”

Newman is the son of two former Liberal federal ministers and was a popular mayor of Brisbane before becoming premier of Queensland in a landslide election victory in 2012, in which the LNP won seventy-eight out of eighty-nine seats. However, he managed to squander this enormous advantage in the space of just one three-year term, losing power to the Labor Party in 2015.

Shortly after Newman’s tease, former Liberal MP Ross Cameron also announced his defection to the LDP. This may have been bigger news had Cameron not been voted out of parliament in disgrace in 2004 following revelations about multiple extramarital affairs. He has spent much of his post-parliamentary career parading himself on Sky News as a racist, a homophobe, and a moon enthusiast. The “serious intellectual firepower” that Albrechtsen called for is clearly yet to materialize.

At this point, the conservative old guard at the Australian felt the need to step in to settle things down. In a typically bombastic editorial, the broadsheet cautioned that Ruddick, Newman, and Cameron’s treachery would only serve to deliver a disastrous outcome, namely, a Labor-Greens government.

Since then, Newman confirmed his candidacy with the backing of Tim Andrews, an Australian Grover Norquist who spends his days fighting tax increases. The founder of the Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance, Andrews is the key figure behind the annual Friedman Conference, alongside Humphreys. The Friedman Conference has been instrumental in connecting libertarians across the country. On the day of Newman’s statement, Andrews announced that he would be joining the LDP to his more than four thousand Facebook followers, urging them to do the same.

These developments demonstrate that libertarians are agreed about the need to pressure the Liberals. However, it is not entirely clear what strategy the LDP will adopt to win the support of disaffected voters. Those still wedded to neoliberal-era economics — Janet Albrechtsen and Campbell Newman, for example — want to add opposition to pandemic restrictions to the usual orthodoxies about reining in government spending.

The more radically inclined have taken their cues from recent right-wing populist successes. They want a clearer, simpler message. “We will be running an anti-lockdown message like Nigel Farage’s single-message campaign on Brexit,” says Cameron. Ruddick agrees, stating that ending “COVID-mania” will be the main campaign theme. As he told Sky News,

Come the first of December, once everyone’s had an opportunity to get vaxxed — if they want to get vaxxed — we go back to complete normality. No more QR codes, no restrictions in any way.

Vaccination might be the most delicate of all issues for the LDP. Authorities have fined both Ruddick and Limbrick for attending anti-lockdown protests, which are usually populated by high numbers of anti-vaccination conspiracy theorists. The Liberal Democrats have used careful messaging to try to balance an awareness that mass vaccination is our best way out of lockdowns with their desire to appeal to anti-vaxxers. Ruddick told the Guardian that the LDP is “neutral” on vaccination. Limbrick is on record opposing the possible imposition of travel or other restrictions on unvaccinated people.

Although the LDP is a marginal force, the party’s strategy will have major implications for the Liberal-National Coalition. The Coalition performs best when it manages to isolate fringe forces to its right and incorporate their supporters, as former Prime Minister John Howard did with Pauline Hanson’s far-right insurgency in the late 1990s. Ever since, the Coalition has generally preferred to court hard-right candidates and voters, preferring to keep them inside the tent rather than throwing bombs from outside.

This strategy is not without risks. Liberal MP Craig Kelly quit the party in February after Prime Minister Scott Morrison criticized his quack views on vaccination and alternative therapies. This might have been a relief for Morrison if it weren’t for the Coalition’s razor-thin parliamentary majority. More recently, both sides of parliament united to condemn another government member, George Christensen, for his idiotic comments on masks, lockdowns, and vaccine passports.

It remains to be seen whether the Coalition can continue to appease libertarian and hard-right elements, while maintaining its commitment to managing capitalism and the health crisis, including by authoritarian means. Whether the Coalition can manage this tension will go some way to determining its electoral fortunes in the forthcoming federal election.

Humphreys and his allies once seemed satisfied with the LDP’s meager electoral returns and libertarianism’s niche status in Australia. Now, however, they have announced a plan “to take the Liberal Democrats from a 2 per cent party to a 10 per cent party over coming elections.” Can they do it?

Chris Berg believes that increasing anger about some of the most dramatic suppression of civil liberties in living memory presents an enormous opportunity. He believes the LDP can succeed if it can steer clear of anti-vaxxers and the hard-right elements that populate libertarian circles, and instead rely on relatively mainstream figures to sell the party’s message.

In 2018, left-wing journalist Guy Rundle wrote that David Leyonhjelm’s strange neuroses served only “to discredit libertarianism as a real political philosophy.” It’s possible, as Rundle argued, that the crackpot element in the Australian libertarian movement will continue to alienate mainstream voters.

However, this is not certain. To quote twentieth-century Australian intellectual Donald Horne, “when times are cracked, the crackpot can become king.” The next federal election could be the LDP’s chance to make its presence felt in Australian politics.

Plaid Cymru AMs are opposed to Neil McEvoy’s application to re-join the party, BBC Wales has been told.

New details have emerged of allegations that led the party’s AMs to expel him from their Senedd group last year.

A document seen by Newyddion 9 alleged Mr McEvoy had accused a colleague of racism based on an untrue allegation and made staff feel uncomfortable.

Mr McEvoy said he could not reply to the claims because of confidentiality.

The South Wales Central AM was expelled from the party’s assembly group in January 2018. He was later expelled from Plaid for 12 months following an investigation into his conduct.

It is understood that his former colleagues in the party group oppose his bid to be reinstated as a Plaid member, although leader Adam Price has not been involved in any discussions between the assembly members.

One AM said it would be “impracticable” for Mr McEvoy to rejoin the party and not the Welsh Assembly group.

Evidence submitted to Plaid Cymru’s general council, shown to Newyddion 9, has revealed the extent of the apparent breakdown in the relationship between Mr McEvoy and Plaid AMs between 2016 and 2018.

In the document, which explains the decision to expel him from the group, the AMs claimed Mr McEvoy had:

• threatened to resign in the first group meeting after the 2016 election
• made an unfounded claim that ex-leader Leanne Wood told the group that non-whites were deliberately excluded from air time in the Westminster election
• accused a colleague of racism based on an untrue allegation
• undermined a member of staff in an email with a journalist
• adopted an aggressive tone
• submitted a Subject Access Request to Leanne Wood, Rhun ap Iorwerth, Dai Lloyd and Bethan Sayed asking for “all personal data about me”
• made staff feel uncomfortable

Mr McEvoy said: “I’m unable to comment as I respect the confidentiality of the (application) process”.

Heledd Gwyndaf, a member of Plaid Cymru, defended his right to rejoin the party.

She said: “Neil McEvoy is a hard-working, principled and very effective AM; and if Plaid Cymru want to win the next assembly elections in 2021 and if Adam Price is to become the first minister of Wales, then I think they have to get Neil McEvoy back”.

“But the real story here is why has this story been released to the press… and for what purpose,” she added.

Mr McEvoy launched a bid to rejoin Plaid Cymru earlier this year.

The decision fell to a disciplinary committee, which failed to reach a decision when it met to consider Mr McEvoy’s request to return to Plaid Cymru.

It was set to hold another meeting, but following leaks to the press the committee asked party bosses to wind it up and find new members.

BBC Wales understands the committee has been disbanded – delaying Mr McEvoy’s bid to rejoin the party.

Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party gained two Welsh MEPs after a sweeping victory in the European elections in Wales, winning in 19 of the 22 council areas.

Plaid Cymru kept its MEP, coming second, with third-placed Labour taking the fourth seat, ahead of the Lib Dems.

The Tories lost their seat and dropped to fifth in the vote, just ahead of the Green Party, UKIP and Change UK.

Welsh Labour leader and First Minister Mark Drakeford said the party would now back a Remain vote in a new referendum.

Brexit Party MEP Nathan Gill said the election result was a “very strong message from Wales – we want our Brexit and we want it now”.

?It means Mr Gill, first elected in 2014 under the UKIP banner, retains his seat in Brussels as a Brexit Party MEP, alongside his new party colleague James Wells.

Mr Gill said only his party was “committed to respecting the vote of the people of Wales” to leave the EU in the 2016 referendum.

All 28 EU member states have been electing MEPs to the European Parliament.

The Brexit Party, launched by Nigel Farage six weeks ago, has won 28 out of the 64 declared UK seats, with a total of 73 up for grabs.

“It’s going to be a pain in the backside for the EU I should imagine,” Mr Gill said.

“We’re not going there to make it work, are we? I mean, we told them, let Britain leave the EU with a decent trade deal and you won’t have any problems with Nigel Farage ever coming back.

“They didn’t do that, did they?”

Jill Evans stays as Plaid Cymru’s MEP and Jackie Jones replaces Derek Vaughan and retains Labour’s Welsh seat in the European Parliament.

It is the first time Plaid has beaten the Labour Party in a Wales-wide election, and only the second time Labour has lost such a poll in a century.

Vote totals and share

• Brexit Party – 271,404 – 32.5%
• Plaid Cymru – 163,928 – 19.6%
• Labour – 127,833 – 15.3%
• Lib Dems – 113,885 – 13.6%
• Conservatives – 54,587 – 6.5%
• Green – 52,660 – 6.3%
• UKIP – 27,566 – 3.3%
• Change UK – 24,332 – 2.9%

Plaid leader Adam Price said the result was “incredible” and it “shows that the tectonic plates of Welsh politics are shifting”.

“Support for the Westminster establishment parties is crumbling and Plaid Cymru is preparing to form the next government of Wales in 2021,” he added.

Ms Evans said: “Plaid’s manifesto set out a vision for a thriving future for Wales at the heart of Europe. I’m looking forward to throwing all my energy into delivering it.”

The turnout was 37.1%, up 5.6% on the previous EU election in 2014.

• What the EU elections tell us about support for Brexit
• What are the clear trends from EU elections?

Mark Drakeford congratulated Jackie Jones on retaining the party’s seat.

He warned that the election of a new Conservative leader would increase the chances of a “catastrophic no-deal exit from the EU”.

“Faced with the damage of a hard-line, Tory Brexit, Welsh Labour believes that the final decision must be made by the public in a referendum.

“And, for the avoidance of any doubt, a Welsh Labour government would campaign, in such a vote, for Wales to remain in the EU,” he said.

Ex-Welsh Government minister Alun Davies blamed the huge drop Labour in Labour support on both Mr Drakeford and the party’s UK leader, Jeremy Corbyn.

“This is the reality we face. Poor leadership from London and no leadership from Wales,” he said on Twitter.

Tweeting ahead of the results, former Welsh Labour First Minister Carwyn Jones said a key message of the night was the failure of pro-EU forces to present a united front.

“Remain parties will comfortably out-poll the Brexit Party in Wales tonight, but the Brexit Party will come first in the vote tallies,” he said.

“This is why I said we should have put forward a united slate, just like the Brexit Party.”

Mr Price agreed, telling BBC Radio Wales’ Breakfast with Claire Summers: “I would like to explore the possibility of a fully-fledged electoral pact between Remain parties.

“If there is a snap general election, it will almost certainly be fought, particularly on this Brexit issue, and we should get our acts together.”

Welsh Liberal Democrat leader Jane Dodds seized on her party’s fourth place as evidence that its “fightback is in full effect”.

“Voters are listening to us again, supporting us again and believing in us again,” she said.

“These results show we’re on course to return a strong and effective Welsh Liberal Democrat assembly group in 2021.”

Cadan ap Tomos, chairman of the Welsh Liberal Democrats National Executive Committee, told BBC Radio Wales that he was feeling “absolutely fantastic” about the result.

Reacting to coming in fifth place – down from third in the previous European election in 2014 – Conservative Welsh Assembly group leader Paul Davies called the results “extremely disappointing for our hard-working candidates”.

The party “must now reflect long and hard on them”, he added.

Lead Tory candidate Dan Boucher emphasised the “very challenging circumstances” of the poll, which took place because the prime minister had failed to secure the UK’s departure from the EU on 29 March, as she had promised.

“People were very frustrated that Brexit hasn’t been delivered and I’m personally frustrated that Brexit hasn’t been delivered as someone who campaigned for it,” he said.

“It’s a very strong signal to the government.”

Brexiteer David Davies, MP for Monmouth, said the results were “an unmitigated disaster for the Conservative Party”.

He added that ministers should stop “whinging” about Brexiteers like Boris Johnson and “take some responsibility for the shambles they have helped create by failing to deliver Brexit”.

The Green Party took 6.3% of the Welsh vote and its leader in Wales, Anthony Slaughter, said the election was not just about Brexit.

“Public concern for climate change has never been greater,” he said. “The people demand action, and the Green Party is the only party that promises to do that based on a record of real delivery.”

Analysis, BBC Wales political editor Felicity Evans

This is an extraordinarily bad night for Welsh Labour, a party that has topped every Wales wide poll (except one) for a century.

It may be the victim of a UK-wide issue and the ambivalence of Jeremy Corbyn’s position on another EU referendum.

But the Welsh party has defied the UK trend many times before. And for their new leader, Mark Drakeford, presiding over a result like this is damaging.

Sources say the party in Wales had no control over the conduct of the campaign or party policy on Brexit.

What we do know is that Mr Drakeford has, for months, resisted pressure from within his own Welsh party to come out more strongly for a further EU poll.

It was loyal to the UK party position, but was it the right call?

It was the election that was never meant to happen – but with the UK still a member of the EU on 23 May, voters spent Thursday at polling stations, casting their votes in the European Parliamentary elections.

Other member states carried out the same task over the weekend, meaning we won’t be seeing results until Sunday night.

But what is the lie of the land across the UK’s 12 regions as 73 people prepare to become a generation of unexpected MEPs?

• 2019 European elections: List of candidates

How did things stand before the vote?

There was no doubt that Brexit was the key issue for voters and politicians alike during the run up to the European elections.

The UK was due to leave the EU on 29 March, but after Parliament failed to come to an agreement on how to exit the bloc, a new deadline of 31 October was agreed.

It meant the UK would hold elections to the European Parliament, and new parties popping up to campaign for Leave and Remain – as well as established parties promoting their stance.

Nigel Farage launched the Brexit Party, demanding an immediate exit from the EU, while Change UK called for a further referendum or “People’s Vote”.

Buoyed by local election results, the Lib Dems and the Greens were hopeful their “stop Brexit” positions would gain traction too.

And UKIP remained on the ballot paper to fight for its existing MEP seats, with independents snapping at their heels.

The two main parties, however – Labour and Conservative – seemed to be preparing for the worst, possibly facing a backlash over their handling of Brexit.

How the UK is divided into regions

England is split into nine regions, with each returning a number of MEPs based on their population.

Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are the final three regions, again returning a number of MEPs determined by their size.

So, what do some of the BBC’s political correspondents predict for their nations and regions?

East Midlands region: Rees-Mogg vs UKIP

Results in 2014:

• UKIP – 2 seats
• Conservatives – 2 seats
• Labour – 1 seat

Analysis by BBC East Midlands political editor Tony Roe

A well-known surname has entered the East Midlands fray in the shape of Annunziata Rees-Mogg – Tory MP Jacob Rees-Mogg’s sister. She is running for the Brexit Party, claiming politics is broken as a result of MPs’ poor handling of the situation.

She has been out campaigning a lot, but admits she doesn’t want to be a politician and would rather stay at home with her young children and new puppy that she picked up a week before the EU poll.

The region will be a test for the Brexit Party, even with a big name.

The 2014 election was a high point for its leader’s former party UKIP and, despite seeing many of its councillors wiped out in the last local elections, UKIP still has a stronghold in the city of Derby, where they increased the number of councillors from three to five in the vote.

Other, more local, names may be a draw for Remain voters – as Change UK MPs Chris Leslie and Anna Soubry are both Nottinghamshire MPs – but there will clearly be tactical voting going on that side of the Brexit argument.

Tory seats are thought to be under threat as party members in parts of the region, such as Derbyshire, have publically refused to campaign, with others thought to have privately followed suit.

And for Labour, as much as they would like to deny it, in some parts of Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire the Corbyn brand is toxic and people have drifted from the party in what used to be key marginals in post-industrial seats since 2015.

Something to keep an eye on though is the Independent Network – a Lincolnshire-based group grounded in local government where they advise local independents all over the country.

Eastern region: The home of Euroscepticism

Results in 2014:

• UKIP – 3 seats
• Conservatives – 3 seats
• Labour – 1 seat

Analysis by BBC East political correspondent Andrew Sinclair

The east of England has always been seen as the home of Euroscepticism.

It was in Essex where UKIP recorded some of its first successes: its first MP, Douglas Carswell, won his seat in Clacton, and it was in Clacton where Nigel Farage held his first Brexit Party rally.

Immigration has always been a big issue here too. The food and farming industry has brought many EU migrants to the region who, while essential to the local economy, have put pressure on services -particularly in the Cambridgeshire Fens.

The region’s fishing industry was badly affected by the decision to join the European Economic Community (EEC).

Promises of a brighter future after Brexit were another reason why parts of the region recorded some of the highest leave votes in the country at the EU referendum, such as Castle Point with 72.7%, Thurrock with 72.3% and Great Yarmouth with 71.5%.

At the last European elections UKIP came first with its highest share in the country, trailed in second by the Conservatives.

On Sunday night, we will see if the East is still as Eurosceptic as it has ever been.

London region: Labour voters to dally elsewhere

Results in 2014:

• Labour – 4 seats
• Conservatives – 2 seats
• UKIP – 1 seat
• Greens – 1 seat

Analysis by BBC London political editor Tim Donovan

London is the only region in England which voted to stay in the EU, with six out of 10 of its voters opting to Remain.

Ahead of the European poll in the capital, there appeared to be strong support for putting the decision to Leave to another referendum, or to forget the thing ever happened and put an end to the process by revoking Article 50.

The mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, instinctively supports the latter position, and sees the former as the very minimum.

Some are expecting the new grouping of Change UK to gain traction in London, with three MPs signed up – including the key figure Chuka Umunna.

But its salience could be limited by the Europhile character of Labour’s MPs, MEPs and members of the grassroots campaign group Momentum, which also backs another referendum.

More to the point, normally staunch Labour supporters could be prepared to dally elsewhere, but be more likely to look to the Lib Dems and Greens.

With perceived ambiguity in Labour’s position, polling suggests a good chunk of its supporters could be contemplating a vote for these parties who appear to offer a clearer, pure alternative.

But if choices are plentiful for Remainers, indicating their vote could be awkwardly split, no such difficulty appears to be troubling Leavers.

A decent portion of the capital’s 40% Leave cohort look like they could support the Brexit party, pushing the Conservatives near the bottom of the pile and wiping all but the smallest trace of UKIP – who’ve had two London assembly members these last four years, as well an MEP – from the capital.

North East region: Votes to harvest

Results in 2014:

• Labour – 2 seats
• UKIP – 1 seat

Analysis by BBC North East and Cumbria political editor Richard Moss

The North East has the smallest population of any of the regions in these elections. And so with only three seats, the competition has been fierce.

It’s always been a region Labour could rely on, coming out on top each time since the current system was adopted in 1999. And in 2014, the party secured two of the three seats.

Five years ago, it was UKIP providing the main challenge and scooping up the third seat. But this time the Brexit Party is hoping it can come out on top.

There are certainly lots of Leave votes to harvest, but it is a region with strong trading links to the EU – especially via exports from the Nissan car plant in Sunderland. Teesside also has a big industrial base, with particular strengths in steel and chemicals.

And beyond the industrial sector, agriculture plays a part, particularly in largely rural Northumberland.

Any future trading links could be vital then, and the Liberal Democrats have been pushing hard to try and harvest Remain votes. They last won a seat in the region in 2009, but are hoping they can also eat into Labour’s support.

There are still communities though struggling to recover from the industrial decline of the 1980s. That’s always helped breed Labour loyalty in the past, but recent local election results suggest it could be a tougher test, and Nigel Farage’s new party may be best placed to take advantage.

North West region: Questioning roots

Results in 2014:

• Labour – 3 seats
• UKIP – 3 seats
• Conservatives – 2 seats

Analysis by BBC North West political editor Nina Warhurst

The North West has mixed feelings on Europe.

The city boroughs of Liverpool and Manchester voted heavily Remain. The University populace, the global football clubs, the booming ports and airports and growing tech investment create a population that works and plays with European neighbours, and sees them as friends.

But away from the big cities, into Cheshire and Lancashire, there is more scepticism. All of their boroughs voted Leave, and Blackpool – where 67.5% wanted out – is often referred to as a totem of Brexit Britain.

Where there’s town poverty, they want change. Where there’s rural wealth, they want freedom.

Traditionally, there is fierce Labour loyalty here. More than two-thirds of North West MPs are Labour and in some constituencies, more than 80% supported the party in 2017.

But the 2016 referendum has challenged loyalties. Some Labour supporters feel frustrated with the party’s please-all position on Brexit and are looking elsewhere.

Meanwhile it’s been hard to trace a local Tory campaign in the region. Many are embarrassed by what’s happening at the top.

Earlier this month, 54 independent councillors were elected in the North West, telling us something about how much people here are questioning their roots.

Northern Ireland: The contest for the third seat

Results in 2014:

• Sinn Fein – 1 seat
• DUP – 1 seat
• UUP – 1 seat

Analysis by BBC Northern Ireland political editor Mark Devenport

Throughout the past 40 years, Northern Ireland has always been represented by two unionist MEPs and one Irish nationalist – a reflection of the majority support for staying within the UK.

But in 2016, 56% of people in Northern Ireland voted to remain within the EU, and the fractious debate since then has shaken some long held assumptions.

Most commentators believe Northern Ireland’s two biggest parties, Sinn Fein and the DUP, will each secure a seat.

But the retirement of a veteran Ulster Unionist MEP has cast doubt over the fate of the third seat.

The Ulster Unionists, the Brexiteer Traditional Unionists, the pro-Remain nationalist SDLP and middle of the road pro-EU Alliance party all harbour hopes in what could turn out to be a tight race.

UKIP, the Greens, the Conservatives and two independents are also in the running, but with neither the Brexit party nor Change UK registered, this will be a contest between the established political parties.

Scotland: The fundamental fault line of independence

Results in 2014:

• SNP – 2 seats
• Labour – 2 seats
• Conservatives – 1 seat
• UKIP – 1 seat

Analysis by BBC Scotland political editor Brian Taylor

Scotland is different. At the simplest level, the full Scottish result will not be known until Monday because they don’t count votes on the Sabbath in the Western Isles.

But there is a more fundamental difference too. A core division beyond the Leave/Remain dichotomy which may influence electoral behaviour elsewhere: the fundamental fault line of independence.

Supporters of independence argue that Brexit means Scotland is being taken out of the EU against their will – as a sizeable majority of voters north of the Border opted for Remain – and Nationalists say those same voters were told in the 2014 independence referendum that the way to ensure Scotland remained in the EU was to endorse that other Union, the United Kingdom.

The SNP says that an independent Scotland would acquire EU membership, but Unionists claim it might not be that straightforward, such as the possible requirement of adopting the single currency.

Supporters of the Union – whatever their views on Europe – also say that the last thing Scotland needs is further constitutional dispute after the chaos of Brexit.

The European contest is a ghost election; spectral politics where the substance lies not with the present choice of party or candidate, but with a possible indicative verdict upon Brexit and, in Scotland, with a comparable signal towards the issue of independence.

This time, the SNP hopes to top the poll again – and would argue that if they do, the people of Scotland are seeking a solution beyond Brexit to the constitutional conundrum which confronts them and the UK more generally.

UKIP’s Scottish MEP, David Coburn, has switched to Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party, and although Mr Coburn is not contesting a seat in Scotland, it will be something to look out for as to whether his new outfit gains Scots who are staunch Leavers.

Look out too for whether the Liberal Democrats can achieve their aim of corralling a sizeable chunk of the non-Nationalist Remain vote in Scotland. They hope their stance – pro EU, pro UK – can catch a certain mood. We shall see.

South East region: Size means surprise

Results in 2014:

• UKIP – 4 seats
• Conservatives – 3 seats
• Labour – 1 seat
• Lib Dems – 1 seat
• Greens – 1 seat

Analysis by BBC South East Today political editor Helen Catt

The South East is a vast region stretching from the Kent coast right through to the edge of the Cotswolds in Oxfordshire.

Traditionally it’s strong Conservative territory – although UKIP swept the board in 2014.

In the referendum, immigration and freedom of movement were significant issues.

The region is largely rural, attracting seasonal migrant workers, but also takes in some of the London commuter belt, university cities like Oxford and major centres of technological innovation for industries like space and defence.

Trade is a particular concern too, as a large proportion of goods imported into the UK come through Dover and Southampton.

With 10 seats available at European elections, the region does have a track record of electing MEPs from smaller parties too.

Nigel Farage, who was first elected for UKIP in 1999, is one of the region’s longest-serving MEPs and his presence continues to dominate the European election contest.

Former Green Party co-leader Caroline Lucas gained significant support as a South East MEP before moving on to Westminster.

But the Liberal Democrats also have strongholds here – in 2014, Catherine Bearder in the South East was the sole MEP the party managed to retain.

With such a large region and the largest number of seats to fill, the South East could well throw up some surprises on Sunday.

South West region: Concentration of celebrity candidates

Results in 2014:

• UKIP – 2 seats
• Conservatives – 2 seats
• Labour – 1 seat
• Greens – 1 seat

Analysis by BBC South West political editor Martyn Oates

Six MEPs represent the enormous South West region, stretching from Gloucestershire in the east all the way to the Isles of Scilly, off the coast of Cornwall, in the far west.

And since 2004, it has also included the British Overseas Territory of Gibraltar.

The last European Elections in 2014 saw UKIP and the Conservatives win two seats each, with Labour and the Green Party each taking one, but both the UKIP MEPs subsequently left the party and one of the Conservatives ended up sitting as an Independent.

This election has seen a concentration of “celebrity” candidates in the region, including former Conservative Minister Ann Widdecombe (for the Brexit Party) and Boris Johnson’s sister Rachel (for Change UK).

At a parliamentary level, the region is dominated by the Conservatives – with a sparse scattering of Labour MPs, one Independent (elected as a Conservative) and one Liberal Democrat.

But the Lib Dems – who until recently had a large number of MPs across the region – made a significant comeback in this month’s local elections in South West counties like Devon and Somerset.

Certain sectors of the South West economy – like fishing and farming – are particularly entwined with the European Union, and Cornwall continues to receive the highest level of economic regeneration funding from the EU.

It will be interesting to see come Sunday what impact, if any, these links have.

Wales: Finding fertile ground

Results in 2014:

• Labour – 1 seat
• UKIP – 1 seat
• Conservatives – 1 seat
• Plaid Cymru – 1 seat

Analysis by BBC Wales political correspondent Arwyn Jones

Wales has received more EU funding than other parts of the UK.

Grants designed to help the poorest regions of Europe were used to try to give parts of the south Wales valleys an economic boost.

And academics have calculated that Wales – unlike the UK as a whole – receives £245m more from the European Union than it pays in every year.

So the country’s vote to Leave in 2016 took many by surprise.

However, with the benefit of hindsight, the signs were there.

UKIP were within a whisker of gaining the most votes at the last European election in 2014. They also won seven seats in the Welsh Assembly in May 2016.

So it might be of little surprise that the Brexit Party say they are finding fertile ground in parts of Wales.

Labour has come first in all but one of the 39 Wales-wide elections since 1918. The only exception was narrowly losing to the Conservatives in 2009 European election.

When the results are announced Sunday evening, will that dominance still hold?

West Midlands region: Success stories to come?

Results in 2014:

• UKIP – 3 seats
• Labour – 2 seats
• Conservatives – 2 seats

Analysis by BBC West Midlands political editor Patrick Burns

In the 2016 referendum, the West Midlands registered some of the UK’s highest proportions of Leave votes. Nearly three-quarters wanted out in parts of Stoke-on-Trent and the Black Country, and generally across the region, Leave triumphed by a ratio of 6:4.

In the process, it sent shockwaves through the political “establishment”. But if they had been paying attention, it should not have come as too much of a surprise.

The region’s contingent of MEPs after the previous European elections, two years before, gave an ample indication of what was to come.

The region was awarded a seventh seat that went to the Conservatives on the basis of the 2014 election results. But also, since then, two of those three UKIP MEPs have resigned from the party and the third is standing down.

UKIP’s showing in this month’s council elections has merely added to the impression that they are now engaged in a fight to the death with the Brexit Party, and Nigel Farage told us recently he expected the West Midlands to be one of the Brexit Party’s biggest success stories this time.

Remember, though, that the West Midlands also has some significant concentrations of Remain support, especially in places like Warwick and Leamington, as well as the more affluent areas of Birmingham, which are home to large academic communities.

Labour’s capture of Warwick and Leamington from the Conservatives in the 2017 general election has been widely interpreted as a verdict on Brexit.

This time though, Labour are accused of “fence-sitting” on Europe, so it is the Liberal Democrats who are campaigning to benefit from the Remain sentiment with their “exit from Brexit” strategy.

Their problem is that the new Change UK party and the Greens have near-identical policies on the EU, so the Remain vote could be split three ways.

Local Conservatives have struggled to make an impact, overshadowed as they are by the ructions within the part at Westminster and many activists here are seething at the government’s failure to deliver Brexit.

The Tory council leader in Walsall, Mike Bird, said his activists would be taking no part in this election. Having supported the Leave campaign, “it would not make sense”, he told us, “for them to campaign for a party whose leadership want something else”.

It may even be touch and go whether or not the Conservatives emerge from these elections with any West Midlands MEPs at all.

Yorkshire and the Humber region: Heads may turn for new brands

Results in 2014:

• UKIP – 3 seats
• Labour – 2 seats
• Conservatives – 1 seat

Analysis by BBC Look North political editor James Vincent

With some of the strongest Leave voting areas in the country, Labour and the Conservatives will have a tough time attracting either side of the debate to vote for them here.

UKIP might have got the most MEPs last time, but with the emergence of the Brexit Party, the big question for them is whether voters will have any brand loyalty to Nigel Farage’s old party – or whether their heads will be turned by his new venture.

The Lib Dems made gains in the local elections, but with a similar EU message to the Greens and Change UK, Remain voters may split between them.

Places like Doncaster and Barnsley where the Leave vote was strongest in Yorkshire (both with a 68% Leave vote) will be really interesting as they are both strong Labour towns that have been watching the party’s Brexit policy closely.

Those places contributed to UKIP getting half the MEPs five years ago – but there is of course a new Brexit Party in town.

York was the strongest Remain area, with 58% voting to stay, and in the recent local elections the Lib Dems and Greens took over the council. Those parties will be hoping to see their Remain message get through here and along the A59 in Harrogate.

But, of course, these elections were pretty unexpected – so much so that the Labour MEP Linda McAvan had already got another job and isn’t standing this time around.

Correction 11 June 2019: This article has been amended to remove an incorrect statistic for the 2016 Leave referendum results in the South East.